According to the latest forecasts, global coal demand is expected to increase by 1.2 percent in 2026, reaching 8.94 billion tons. This change is due to ongoing crises in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have significantly impacted gas prices.
Why is Coal Back in Focus?
With rising gas prices and changing weather patterns, various countries have turned to coal production and usage. Particularly in countries like Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China, which have excess coal capacities, demand for this fossil fuel has clearly increased. In fact, disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply have led to reduced availability and increased gas prices, making coal a more attractive option.
Currently, coal is recognized as a reliable alternative fuel during times of crisis. Experts state that the Middle Eastern crisis and increased demand due to abnormal weather patterns will further boost demand for coal.
Global Coal Outlook
Forecasts indicate that coal demand in China will increase by 1 percent, in India by 4.2 percent, and in South Korea by 6 percent. However, in the United States and Japan, a decrease in demand is expected. This contradictory situation clearly reflects various developments in global markets.
This year, despite rising consumption, coal production will decline, leading to strengthened prices and a tighter market. Additionally, the Middle Eastern crisis is expected to accelerate global coal trade and significantly impact this market due to geopolitical developments.
Ultimately, the future of coal depends on the duration and intensity of the Middle Eastern crises. If tensions ease and LNG flows return to normal, coal demand may decrease in 2027; otherwise, further increases in coal usage are anticipated.
