National support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has reached 30 percent, marking the first time in the party's history this has occurred. Meanwhile, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has fallen to a record low of 20 percent, indicating deep changes in the political structure of Germany.
Poll Results and Analysis
According to a poll conducted by GMS, the ruling coalition led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is no longer able to secure a majority. The poll shows that CDU has lost three points compared to mid-July polls, while AfD has gained two points. In this context, another poll by YouGov indicates that AfD stands at 29 percent and CDU at 18 percent, reaching a very weak status.
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Impact of Recent Elections
These numbers come after CDU's heavy defeat in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, where AfD won with 43.8 percent. Friedrich Merz described this result as shocking for his party, stating, "We are all extremely surprised; we did not expect such a result." Personal polls for Merz are also disappointing; 78 percent of respondents answered negatively to the question of whether Friedrich Merz is (still) a suitable chancellor.
Pressure within CDU is increasing, and rumors about potential changes in party leadership are spreading. Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hendrik Wüst, and Markus Söder from Bavaria are mentioned as potential successors. Söder has also pointed out the inefficacy of the "firewall" model against AfD.
Furthermore, Alice Weidel, co-leader of AfD, had a heated debate with Merz after the voting in Saxony-Anhalt in the federal parliament, stating, "Voters in Saxony-Anhalt clearly indicated to you that the black-red coalition is over." Merz has also described AfD as a destructive force that "wants to destabilize our country."
State elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin on September 20 will be another test for CDU. There are rumors that if CDU fails in these elections as well, significant pressure will be placed on Merz, and his role as chancellor may become unbearable.
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